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PANDEMIC PREPAREDNESS FOR BUSINESSES
PANDEMIC PREPAREDNESS FOR BUSINESSES
PANDEMICS THROUGH HISTORY
PANDEMICS THROUGHOUT HISTORY
History over the last three centuries has taught us that novel avian pandemic flu occurs every 91 years (plus or minus 3.5 years for antigenic drift).
Given that the last major pandemic was the 1917/1918 Spanish flu this means that we can expect a pandemic flu outbreak between 2006 and 2013.
It is a mathematical certainty.
The following chart is designed to show the cyclical nature of severe pandemics throughout history.
It does NOT include the regular annual (or other more frequent) influenza epidemics.
These are only the severe pandemics which occur about three times a century and have fatality rates of above 0.01%. The 1918 Spanish Flu, considered as "the worst" influenza outbreak in history claimed about 3% of those it infected.
The obvious picture which emerges from this is that at some point in the early part of the 21st century the world is due for another major pandemic outbreak.
This has happened once in every hundred years, invariably within the first 30 years of the century, and in most cases within the first 20 years of the century.
Common opinion is that the forthcoming pandemic will be a new (mutated) strain of the Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) virus, and the attempts that the H5N1 strain has made to jump into humans in the last decade would seem to corroborate this theory.
However the next global pandemic may come from sources other than birds. The only thing we can be sure of is that pandemic influenza will come at some point, the nature of the emergence of the virus throughout history dictates that.
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