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PANDEMIC PREPAREDNESS FOR BUSINESSES

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19.1            An Avian Flu pandemic will not be like a physical disaster. Avian Flu has unique characteristics when compared with a more "typical" disaster. For example:

19.1.1            The impact of Avian Flu would likely be widespread, not localised to a single area or region; therefore there may be little outside assistance. Many business continuity plans assume some part of an organisation is unaffected and can take up the required capacity.

19.1.2            An Avian Flu pandemic is not a physical disaster. It has some unique characteristics that require implementation of activities to limit contact such as restriction of movement, quarantine, and closure of public gatherings.

19.1.3            An Avian Flu pandemic would not be a short, sharp event leading immediately to commencement of a recovery phase. Many business continuity plans assume the event is short/sharp and that recovery can start immediately.

19.1.4            It is quite likely that there will be some advance warning from the development of Avian Flu, but it is always possible that any warning period may be very short. Should Avian Flu spread within SE Asia it will probably be some weeks before the full impact on workforce will be felt, although there may be some early impacts resulting from closures of schools and similar containment measures.

19.1.5            Unlike natural disasters, where any disruption to business service provision is likely to be hardware-related, disruption to business operation in the event of a pandemic is anticipated to be mainly human-resource oriented. WHO advises that businesses should plan for up to 50% staff absences for periods of about two weeks at the height of a severe pandemic wave, and lower levels of staff absence for a few weeks either side of the peak. Overall a pandemic wave may last about 8 weeks. Note that the pandemic may come in waves of varying severity over time.

19.2            Staff absences can be expected for many reasons:

19.2.1            Illness/incapacity (suspected / actual / post-infectious)

19.2.2            Some employees may need to stay at home to care for the ill

19.2.3            People will feel safer at home (e.g. to keep out of crowded places such as public transport)

19.2.4            Some people may be fulfilling other voluntary emergency roles in the community

19.2.5            Others may need to stay at home to look after school-aged children (as schools are likely to be closed).

19.3            An Avian Flu pandemic could last many months and may contain peaks followed by periods of reduced illness. The 50% is an estimate of staff absences at peaks of a significant pandemic.

19.4            Avian Flu may have other impacts on businesses, for example:

19.4.1            Supplies of materials needed for ongoing activity may be disrupted, e.g. if they are imported as air freight; similarly, availability of services from sub-contractors may be impacted (this may affect maintenance of key equipment, and is an area that merits close planning attention).

19.4.2            Demand for services may be impacted - demand for some services may increase (internet access is a possible example); while demand for others may fall (e.g. certain types of travel activity may reduce).

19.5            Business continuity plans may need to be reviewed to ensure that they are robust to significant staff absences and other pandemic-related risks.

19.6            It is not possible to predict how long an Avian Flu pandemic may last. There could be more than one wave of infection during a pandemic period. Each wave could typically last about eight weeks, building to a peak in week four before abating again. The World Health Organiation advises that businesses should plan for up to 50% staff absences for periods of about two weeks at the height of a pandemic wave and lower levels of staff absence for a few weeks either side of the peak.

19.7            To ensure business continuity in a pandemic, short term planning, with a health focus, is paramount. Succession planning (in the event of staff deaths or long-term disability during the pandemic) and back up planning is also essential. Emergency management and overall recovery is greatly facilitated if essential services are available without significant interruption.

19.8            Continuity planning for Avian Flu should include:

19.8.1            Identification of essential business activities (and the core people and skills to keep them running), and ensuring that these are backed-up with alternative arrangements.

19.8.2            Mitigation of business / economic disruptions, including possible shortages of supplies; and Minimising illness in workers and customers.

19.9            Medical Advisor

19.9.1            If your business does not already have one, it may be prudent to ensure that it has access to a medical practitioner for assistance and advice in the event of an Avian Flu pandemic.

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